Sports Lynx Blog

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Everyone’s a draft expert on the Monday after the draft so it is only right that I jump in there and offer my expertise.  I can’t and won’t comment on every selection made in round one but I will offer my thoughts on some of them.

 Jake Long (Miami):  I love the pick.  However,  you always have to wonder if you offensive tackle draft pick can protect your franchises’ back side.  Playing in the Big-10,  I don’t know if Long saw as many hellacsious defensive ends with the kind of speed he will witness at this level.  There’s no doubt about his run blocking.  So,  if he does not work out on the left,  he will certainly work out on the right.  When you can get an offensive lineman and the quarterback he protected in college (Chad Henne) in the same draft you have done something good.  Just drafting anyone named Chad just seems right.

Matt Ryan (Atlanta):  Bust!  Write it down.  I am going out on a limb and saying it.  The draftniks and public fell in love with this guy and I don’t know why.  I don’t see what he’s going to bring to that position and team that will elevate them. In my eyes he’s a very average quarterback and will play that way.  Average arm.  below average mobility (which is big in today’s game) and questionable decision making which to me is A #1 for quarterbacks.  I liked Chad Henne better than Ryan in this draft but the Falcons got plowed by public opinion.

Darren McFadden (Oakland):  I like the player but Oakland is where players go to kill their careers.  Oakland loves 40 times and so McFadden was their guy.  Personally,  I think they need a back that can take a pounding and I don’t know that McFadden is it.  Perhaps JaMarcus Russell and McFadden can grow up together.  Perhaps Al will put on a pair of jeans and sell the team.  I can’t recall an Oakland first round pick that turned into something in the last decade. 

Glenn Dorsey (Kansas City): I love defensive tackles.  They are the way to a good defense.  They make everyone better.  Your linebackers make more plays when the tackles are good.  Your defensive backs make more tackles when the defensive tackles are good and your defensive ends get single blocked when your tackles are good.  This tackle is good.  This pick is good.  Kansas City’s defense will be good.  Got it?  Good.

Jonathan Stewart (Carolina):  Carolina had several needs and this was one of them.  Is there a chance they could have gotten Stewart in the 2nd round?  Yes but you can never be sure.  Stewart is their can of runner and should be effective with DeAngelo Williams.

Ryan Clady (Denver): Through the years,  Denver has done a good job knowing what it is they do and finding people to fit into it.  There were linemen that graded out better than Ryan Clady that were available when Denver was up at pick #12.  However,  none fit their system better than this guy. 

Dominique Rogers Cromartie (Arizona):  Any time the Cardinals can draft on defense,  it’s a good thing.  Having Cromarties to team up with Antrell Rolle gives them a tremendous advantage in the pass happy NFL.  There were concerns about Cromartie playing against small school competition.  Whoever subscribed to that theory knows little about playing this position.  Schools like this are where great corners come from.  They face pass happy teams with fast receivers because the small schools don’t get the highly skilled big guys.  Cromartie is highly skilled and will make an impact early.

 Joe Flacco (Delaware):  Hyping up small school quarterbacks is usually a bad deal.  The small school quarterbacks have done well when they have been underrated and off of the radar.  Flacco will come in with immediate pressure and I don’t know that he will be able to handle it.  A strong quarterbacks coach,  offensive coordinator and system will be needed to make this guy a success.  If you are missing any of those three then we are headed for bustville.

Aqib Talib (Tampa Bay):  I don’t know that he’s a corner in the NFL.  I think he will struggle there and Tampa will be forced to move him to safety at some point.  He’s also immature which will be a problem in the city of Tampa and with this coach.  If Tampa is going to be running a bunch of cover 2 then perhaps Talib can make them not curse this pick.  Start going man to man then the wheels could come off.

Sam Baker (Atlanta):  Notice the formula,  draft a quarterback high,  you better draft an offensive tackle high.  Atlanta followed that formula here.  Baker was hampered by injuries at USC and you can’t help the club in the tub.  IF he can stay healthy and can block the Dwight Freeney’s of the World then this is a good pick.  However,  Matt Ryan won’t give him much help eluding defensive ends so he’s going to have to work overtime to keep this QB clean.

Felix Jones (Dallas):  I like this pick by the Cowboys who filled a need.  Marion Barber may not be around.  I don’t know why but I think Felix Jones will be a better running back than Darren McFadden.  Going to Dallas instead of Oakland will play a big part in that but Jones won’t have as much pressure on him as McFadden and that is a huge factor in your NFL success.

Rashard Mendenhall (Pittsburgh):  Great pick up for the Steelers although I would have liked to have seen what Mendenhall could do in a Broncos uniform.  Mendenhall can do the dirty work inside like Jerome Bettis used to and this will make Willie Parker that much better.

Chris Johnson (Tennessee):  I don’t know why this pick needed to be made here but they did.  The success of this pick depends on how they use him.  I don’t know that Johnson’s run to the sidelines style is suited for the way Tennessee runs the ball but there’s a new offensive coordinator in town so things might change.  I do know that Lendale White is not the answer and if Johnson can’t handle a significant amount of the workload with White then this pick will not pan out.

 Kenny Phillips (NY Giants):  Anytime you get a player from the U in the first round you have gotten yourself some quality.  There’s a whole lot of evidence to support this.  Phillips has some things to work on and from what I know,  he’s coachable and willing to fill in the gaps.  Joining the World Champs gives him time to get his game up to speed so for now he can use his athleticism to make great plays.

When grading a football player, you need to consider the system that he is going to play in. Football is unlike any other sport in that respect. For example, Derek Jeter would be Derek Jeter whether he played shortstop for the Yankees or the Dodgers or some team in Japan; he’s a great player. Kobe Bryant would be Kobe with the Lakers, the Bulls..I was about to say the Knicks but scratch that..the Knicks could make anyone look horrible but you get the point. I hear people speak of football players who play the same position and say “this guy will be better than that guy”, this typically occurs the day after the NFL Draft.

Here’s the thing, you can’t say who will be better unless you first consider the system the player is going to play in. Yesterday the debate in local bars surely centered on which team Dallas or Pittsburgh got the better back at #22 and #23 when Dallas selected Felix Jones and Pittsburgh got Rashard Mendenhall. I would suggest that each team got a great player for their system and their situation, let me explain.

The Steelers already have Willie Parker, who will be in the 3rd year of a 4-yr deal this upcoming season. While Parker is an every down back, his fortay is speed. Parker will make ten runs for 1-yd and then hit the 11th for 70-yds. The Steelers tend to abuse their running backs thus Parker is losing a lot of “tread on his tires” and quickly. Consider that in 12 games last year before he was lost to a season ending injury, Parker carried the rock 321 times which is an average of almost 27 carries a game. What’s the first thing a running back loses with age and carries, speed. It behooves Pittsburgh to reduce Parker’s workload thus the selection of Rashard Mendenhall makes perfect sense as he is seen as an every down back. The one knock on Mendenhall is that he could be a “one-hit” wonder having had only one big season at Illinois and playing in the Big 10 which is not exactly known for producing fast defensive players lately.

Now, let’s take a look at the Cowboys. People wondered why Dallas didn’t select Mendenhall, who many had graded as the #2 back in the draft behind McFadden. I ask this question, why would Dallas take a guy who is going to be the same player as their featured running back, Pro Bowler Marion Barber? Barber is 25 years old, about to sign a long-term deal with Dallas coming off his first Pro Bowl and capable of carrying the rock 20 times a game. Barber has very little “tread” worn of his tires as he shared carries with New England tailback Lawrence Maroney at Minnesota and then in Dallas he shared the load with Julius Jones. Barber is an animal with the ball in his hands but is not a home-run threat. Enter Felix Jones, who may be the most explosive runner in this draft and that says a lot when one considers that this guy played at Arkansas with McFadden. In 3-yrs at Arkansas Jones averaged 7.7 yds per carry which is 2nd in NCAA history behind only Army’s Doc Blanchard and ahead of USC’s Reggie Bush. Jones did this with NFL caliber defenders from the SEC chasing him. Felix Jones will be lightning to Marion Barber’s thunder; a great selection by the Cowboys.

The problem with draft pundits is that they try to analyze selections many times as “win-lose” when in this case it was “win-win”. The Steelers and the Cowboys each hit it out of the park with their first round selections of these two running backs. Mendenhall’s agressive style will fit perfectly in the Pittsburgh’s system and as a compliment to Willie Parker’s speed. Conversely, Felix Jone’s speed and big-play ability should augment Marion Barber’s punishing style in Dallas. A great job by both organizations with these two selections on Saturday.

Make no mistake about it, Adam “PacMan” Jones can play football, that is not in question. Jones is Devan Hester only he can play a position full-time; he’s a lock-down corner. The question about PacMan is if he will be in lock-down rather than locking down WRs in the NFL. You see Jones’ ability has never been questioned but his character and his judgment have been and rightfully so.

I know the outcry will come from some of you, most of them being Cowboy haters, that this is a “travesty”. Folks, let’s be honest here, the NFL is not about signing boyscouts, if you want that turn your attention to high school football; the NFL is purely about winning football games.

Jerry Jones has made a very smart and rather safe bet here. Jones has a team that is built to win a Super Bowl. We can all argue about what a joke the Pro Bowl is, however, Dallas had a record 13 Pro Bowlers last year thus you can’t argue that they aren’t an immensely talented team. The divisional round loss to the NY Giants doesn’t look so bad now considering the Giants subsequently defeated the Packers and Patriots to win the Super Bowl. Matter of fact I recall a team that went 13-3 in 2005 and lost to a very hot Pittsburgh team in the divisional round, a Pittsburgh team that won the Super Bowl that year. What team am I referring to; your 2006 Super Bowl Champion Indianapolis Colts. Make no mistake about it, the Dallas Cowboys are on a short list of teams in 2008 that can win a Super Bowl. What happened to the Ny Giants in 2007 was an anomaly thus don’t count on this happening every year. Most years there are only 6-7 teams that have a realistic chance of winning a Super Bowl; Dallas is one of those teams in 2008.

Jerry Jones sent a 4th round pick in 2008 to the Titans for Jones. Dallas has two first round picks, a 2nd and a 3rd thus they will still make 4 picks in the first four rounds. If Jones is reinstated and plays a lot in 2008, Tennessee gets a 6th round pick in 2009. If Jones plays that much, Jerry Jones will be more than happy to give that 6th round pick to Tennessee because he will have gotten a steal. If PacMan does what PacMan has been known to do and screws this all up, then the Cowboys get their 4th round pick back in 2009 and it’s going to be a higher pick than the one they gave up this year (#126) unless Tennessee wins the Super Bowl in 2008.

I know we will get posts about PacMac “destroying the team chemistry”,  just as Randy Moss destroyed team chemistry in New England right? Tank Johnson, who is not nearly as talented as Adam Jones, signed with Dallas last year and was a model citizen by all accounts. With Calvin Hill leading the way, the Cowboys have the best player support system in the NFL. The real risk here for Jerry Jones is this; Adam Jones will come back and play first-rate football, we all know that because he has that kind of talent. The Cowboys will then begin to rely on Adam Jones on Sundays. The question at that point will be, does Adam Jones become a knucklehead again and let down his team and their fans? If PacMan returns to his old ways, the Cowboys will get burned not because they gave up too much to get him, they didn’t; they will get burned because they end up trusting him and relying on him something that Adam Jones has not proven worthy of yet in his young life.

The NL Central is the toughest division for me to handicap personally because each of the team’s is so flawed that I can’t really find a team that I like and feel confident in taking to win this division. I know popular thinking is the Cubs but to be honest, well they’re the Cubs! LOL I will say this, the division will be competitive from start to finish.

1. Milwaukee Brewers- projected record- 86-76

I really don’t think it will take much more than 86 wins to take this division because the NL West and NL East will beat the hell out of these teams when they play them. The preceding being said, I kind of like Milwaukee to get it done this year. This team is young and talented with Prince Fielder, JJ Hardy et al. Of course the key for Milwaukee is keeping their ace Ben Sheets off the shelf. Sheets is as good as it gets when he’s healthy but he is injury prone. Hey I don’t love the Brewers by any means and I could easily see someone else’s take on this division but for my money, I will take the young and comers over the Cubs who always find a way to lose.

2. Chicago Cubs- projected record- 85-77

Hey great start to the Kerry Woods as closer era in Chicago on opening day as Woods came in and chucked a little gasoline on the fire allowing 3-runs in the 9th inning. The Cubs have some talent but I don’t think they will pitch as well as last year. Zambrano is a stud but I am not sold on Ted Lilly, Rich Hill etc. While I like Derek Lee, he’s another guy who gets hurt a lot. Aramis Ramirez is underrated at third base but the rest of this line-up doesn’t scare me one bit. When I hear everyone picking the Cubs, which is what I hear, I run in the other direction.

3. Cincinnati Reds- projected record- 83-79

I like Dusty Baker and some of the pieces that are in Cincinnati. Aaron Harang  is an excellent pitcher toiling in a hitter’s ballpark. If Cincinnati can get some decent pitching and Junior Griffey stays healthy with Dunn and some of the other pop in this line-up, who knows? In the end, I don’t think they have enough pitching to win the division but I do think they will be very competitive all year long.

4. St. Louis Cardinals- projected record- 76-86

Other than Albert Pujos and Tony LaRussa, what is there to like about the 2008 Cardinals? The pitching staff is woefully thin, I mean Adam Wainright is their ace. The line-up is bad after trading Scott Rolen and losing other mainstays like Jim Edmonds to age. The only reason this team will win this many games is that they play in the worst division in baseball. Put St. Louis in the NL West and they’d be a 65 win club. Sorry Cardinal fans, your normally good team stinks this season.

5. Pittsburgh Pirates-projected record- 73-89

The 20-year rebuilding plan is almost complete. I mean the Pirates have been rebuilding since Barry Bonds left and Sid Bream scored the winning run for Atlanta in the NLCS in the early 90s. The only reason I didn’t pick Pittsburgh for last place was my sympathy for their fan base and the fact that I saw a team on my satellite last night that I think is worse than Pittsburgh. (that is coming next) I do like Ian Snell and a couple of their players like Jason Bay but overall the best thing about the Pittsburgh Pirates is their ballpark.

6. Houston Astros-projected record- 68-94

Good thing the state of Texas has the Dallas Cowboys and the University of Texas football team to follow because baseball is going to suck for these folks this summer with the Rangers and Astros. I have no clue how Houston will score runs. Yes they have Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee and some other hitters like Tejada (until he goes to jail for perjury perhaps), however the pieces just don’t fit. They have too many guys who strike out too much, not enough speed on the bases and their pitching, save Roy Oswalt,  stinks. I don’t like the make-up of this team at all and I believe by July they will be looking to deal contracts for prospects. This may surprise some people but I honestly believe that the Astros will have last place all to themselves in the NL Central.

Tomorrow, I will tackle the NL West, the NL Playoffs and the World Series champion.

Well now that we finished the American League, let’s preview the NL races. I find it funny how the media continues to portray the NL as a “minor league” to the American League, however, the NL has won 3 of the last 8 World Series thus it is not as though they haven’t been competitive. I know the imbalance of late in inter-league play and I do recognize that the AL is somewhat more talented but the young talent is in the National League thus I would expect a shift of power over the next three years that will last about a decade. 

Did any team in recent memory choke like the Mets? Oh my God, watching the Mets down the stretch last year was pitiful, especially, when one considers that they were passed out by a Phillies team that has horrific pitching. I don’t see the Phillies competing with the Mets this year. I believe New York will play with a chip on its shoulder from beginning to end. The only things that can do in the Mets are injuries to their team which is very old in some spots.

Projected NL East Finish

1. NY Mets- projected record- 94-68

After adding Johan Santana this team has all the making of the NL East Champions. I love John Maine in the #2 spot and anything they get out of Pedro Martinez only makes them better. Admittedly, I think their starting pitching is a bit thin after this but they should score runs in bunches. Billy Wagner scares me a tad as the closer, in that he isn’t what he used to be but this team should win more than enough games with Carlos Beltran, Joses Reyes and David Wright swinging the lumber for them. I will say this, Delgado, Alou and Martinez are very injury prone right now and that could derail this celebration if the injury bug begins to bite.

2. Atlanta Braves- projected record- 91-71

Everyone is talking about the Mets and Phillies, how about a Braves team with the best manager in the division and a starting rotation that includes Tim Hudson, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine. Glavine is 42 so I don’t expect him to be the Glavine of 10 yrs ago but is 12-14 wins out of the question? The Braves really need Mike Hampton to be something for them to be able to compete for the division title but I do think this team will be on the Mets heels all year long. Kelly Johnson, Brian McCann and Jeff Francour form a very formidable trio of young talent for the next generation of Braves and who doesn’t like a line-up that includes Chipper Jones and Mark Texeria. Everyone loves the Phillies and Mets infield well let me tell you, this team is just as talented in many ways.

3. Philadelphia Phillies- projected record 85-77

The Phillies won the NL East last year because they outscored everyone. It’s easy to see how they do this with a line-up that includes Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins, however, the rest of this line-up isn’t that good. Burrell is a joke in pressure situations and the team’s pitching is abysmal. Seriously look at Brett Myers, the guy can’t get past the 6th inning. Cole Hamels has two pitchs, fastball and change-up; he can’t throw a curveball for a strike. Hamels also has a bad attitude, he thinks he’s Sandy Koufax when in fact he’s more like Steve Avery. The Phillies bullpen is so bad that they just signed Rudy Seanez who the Dodgers cut. If not for the trio of sluggers I named above, I could see this team finishing 4th but they will score far too many runs to do that. They’ll need a flashlight to find the Mets come September.

4. Washington Nationals- projected record- 75-87

This team will be more competitive than many think because they have some pieces like Ryan Zimmerman, Austin Kearns and Nick Johnson, however, don’t get too excited by their 2-0 start. The Nationals have bad starting pitching, you know this when Odalis Perez is your opening day starter. Perez couldn’t stick around in Kansas City and he’s pitching the first game for Washington, this is all you need to know about this team’s pitching and their prospects of doing anything significant in 2008.

5. Florida Marlins- projected record- 67-95

The Marlins have some young talent like Hanley Ramirez and Andrew Miller who came over in the Miguel Cabrera trade. But, any team that trades Cabrera for a bunch of minor league players shouldn’t be expecting big things in 2008. Also, Dodger cast-off Mark Hendrickson, was the Marlins opening day starter. Come on, this team will be pitiful in 2008!

Well, there you have the NL East, it’s the Mets to lose in my mind. Next up, the NL Central.

I will keep this short and sweet as I am planning my NL East Preview tomorrow. In the AL Playoffs round 1:

Detroit 3 games to 2 over Boston - I believe the Motor City Kitties have too much offense and overall depth for Boston this year.

Ny Yankees 3 games to 2 over LA Angels- the Yankees finally get out of the first round

AL Championship- Detroit 4 games to 2 over the Ny Yankees- the Yankees overall inexperience in their pitching staff will do them in against a very deep and talented Detroit Tigers line-up.

Well we are through the AL East and Central, time to tackle the AL West. This division is the easiest for me to handicap because I see no real threat to the LA Angels of Anaheim. The division is weak overall as the pre-season darling of many, Seattle, is a farce to me.

1. LA Angels of Anaheim- predicted record- 96-66

The Angels start the season with some pitching injuries but once this team gets healthy they should roll to the AL West title in 2008. Vlad is one of baseball’s best and most feared hitters, the only question that remains is whether the Angels can find some protection for him in their somewhat thin line-up. The pitching staff, led by John Lackey, is talented and deep while K-Rod is always waiting in the wings to shut things down in the 9th. Couple all this with the fact that the Angels possess one of the very best managers in the game in Mike Scossia and an owner willing to spend when necessary and you have the 2008 AL West Champions.

2. Oakland A’s- predicted record- 86-76

I am going out on the limb here and saying that Oakland will not be nearly as bad as some have predicted. A healthy Rich Harden is one of the AL’s best pitchers, the question of course remains; how long does Harden stay healthy? None the less, I like Joe Blanton behind Harden and Street is a pretty good closer even if he did blow a save in Japan last week. The line-up has question marks but Billy Beane seems to always find players from somewhere. This pick is as much about not being in love with the other teams in this division as it is about picking Oakland for 2nd.

3. Seattle Mariners- predicted record- 80-82

The Mariners traded this off-season for Erik Bedard, so what. Bedard is 29 yrs old and have never pitched 200 innings in his career. I do love Felix Hernandez but I have questions about their line-up and I mean big questions. I don’t like the make-up of the line-up overall. Sure JJ Putz had a great year closing last season, perhaps he can do it again. However, overall I see Bedard being shut-down for a while during the season as he is every year and I see Hernandez probably having the same thing happen. The rest of the starting staff is rather average. For some reason I am not buying what others are selling with this club.

4. Texas Rangers- predicted record- 71-91

The only thing  I can say about the Rangers for their fans is your Dallas Cowboys are going to be really good this year! LOL..if I was a Ranger fans I would be anxiously awaiting NFL training camp because this team stinks. Nolan Ryan is the best pitcher in the organization which isn’t a bad thing other than the fact that Ryan is 62 yrs old. I think if Ryan got 15 starts he may win more games than any of the other hurlers on this club. The only reason I see Texas winning 71 games is that the division stinks. If this club were in the AL East, I would peg them for 65 wins.

Well, there you have it the AL West preview. I will next handicap the AL Champion and then move along to the NL previews. Stay tuned…..

Well now that we have the Ny Yankees winning the AL East, it is time to turn our attention to the south in the AL standings and preview the AL Central. This is the division directly below the AL East in the standings for those of you who think that baseball begins and ends north of the Mason-Dixon line and east of Pittsburgh.

This division is very interesting as we see the Cleveland Indians returning as the defending champions. I don’t see Cleveland repeating the feat in 2008 for many reasons. Let’s take a look below and see.

Predicted order of finish:

1. Detroit Tigers - projected record- 94-68

Detroit’s line-up for my money is the best in baseball top to bottom. This team has Maglio Ordonez, Miguel Cabrerra, Guillen (now at 1B), Edgar Reteria at SS..seriously this is one scary line-up. I would check Carmona’s underwear pre-game if I was Eric Wedge because he may not like staring down the barrel at this group. The forgotten aspect of the Tigers is the continued development of starting pitchers Jeremy Bonderman and Justin Verlander. This 1-2 punch has the potential (meaning they haven’t done it yet) to be as good as any 1-2 punch in baseball. I think the combination of offense, good starting pitching and Jim Leyland running the ship will propel the Motor City Kitties to the AL Central title in 2008.

2. Cleveland Indians- projected record- 89-73

I don’t feel the love this year for the Tribe. Oh sure Sabathia and Carmona is a great 1-2 punch but you have to wonder just when Sabathia will have one burger too many and become Bartolo Colon. Sure Cleveland has the AL’s best catcher in Victor Martinez (a close 2nd in baseball to LA’s Russell Martin who can do a bit more overall, the guy stole 20+ bases) and a good DH in Travis Hafner. However, I am not in love with Cleveland’s line-up as they have some guys who strike-out a bit too much and seem to wait for the 3-run HR to score their runs. The rotation is a bit top heavy for my liking. I think Cleveland will be a good club all year long, just not good enough.

3. Chicago White Sox- projected record- 82-80

I don’t have a ton to say about this team as I believe they are average all the way around. Sure the ChiSox have a few nice pieces here and there but I don’t love this team and I believe that Ozzie has worn thin on the players and this town. Kenny Williams is a good GM, perhaps he pulls a mid-season trade or two if they are in the race and the magic of 2005 happens again but I don’t see it. Detroit is too good for Chicago and Cleveland is a lot better as well. This pitching staff seems to still be paying for the run they made in 2005 when Ozzie pitched guys complete games in the playoffs. Take a look at the staff’s trends and you’ll see a steady downward line after 2005.

4. Kansas City Royals- projected record- 77-85

The Royals have a lot of young players that I like a lot. As usual, they don’t have enough pitching to be taken seriously but I also don’t see this club losing 100 games as has been their annual ritual for what seems like a decade or more. I do think KC has enough young talent and energy to keep themselves from finishing last in the Central this season.

5. Minnesota Twins-projected record- 70-92

How can you like what this team has done over the last year? They trade Matt Garza, a potential top of the rotation starting pitcher, to Tampa for Young. Young is a talented outfielder with power to all fields and he’s only 25 years old, however, you don’t trade potentially great starting pitchers for this; do you? The Twins then turnaround and trade arguably baseball’s best starting pitcher to the Mets for a bunch of guys with “potential”, there is that word again. What do I like about the Twins, well, I do like the catcher Morneau and a couple of their position players but I don’t see how this team has enough starting pitching to compete. I think the players will be down this year as the realize management has given zero chance of winning by trading Santana and Garza, thus I am going out on a limb here and predicting an unusual last place finish for the Twins.

Check back on Monday as I preview the AL West and pick my American League playoffs.

So you are sitting down, pouring over all the stats, replaying all things you saw in those conference tournaments and you are ready.  You are not only ready to win your office bracket contest but you are also ready to win the millions of dollars being offered by several online outfits for filling out the perfect NCAA Tournament bracket.   Hell,  sportsbook.com is offering $11,000,000 to anyone who can fill out a perfect NCAA tournament bracket.  Ever wonder why this place would be so willing to part with that kind of money for someone to fill out a tournament bracket.  I mean with 1,000’s of entries,  someone or some people might get lucky.  

Well,  trust me,  the online sportsbooks aren’t raking in millions and billions of dollars because they are lucky.  They’ve done the research and they know the numbers.   The chances of someone filling out a perfect NCAA Tournament bracket are…..   drum roll please……………….

 One in Nine Million Trillion.    Yes that’s 1 in 9,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.  You have a better chance at your local lotto.  You have a better chance in a power ball loto.  You have a better chance in a multi-state power ball lotto.  You have a better chance of getting hit by lightning on a clear and sunny day.   You have a better chance of being King of England when you know you are from the tough streets of Detroit.   

But don’t let that stop you.  It hasn’t stopped thousands of online surfers from throwing their hat in the ring and taking a shot at changing their lives. 

For you mathematics lovers,  check out this article which goes into more detail about just how hard it is to hit the perfect bracket:

http://72.14.205.104/search?q=cache:er8cxfUDctcJ:www.stat.yale.edu/~jay/News/WSJbb.pdf+ncaa+tournament+bracket+stats&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=10&gl=us

Ok, it’s that time of the year again. Time to bask in the glow of spring time because baseball is right around the corner. For the sports fan, I view the big three sports like this, Football is the hot Victoria Secret model. It’s beautiful but it comes with its down sides. The season is too short, just when you’re getting into it, it seems as though it’s over. If you live in the North, it signals the end of summer. Much like the model, who is beautiful but so beautiful that as she ages it becomes depressing. Basketball is the girl next door, you don’t pay much attention to her but then one day she come outside in a bikini and you say, “holy cow she lived next door to me all these years”. That time would be right now, the NCAA tournament time. Ah but baseball, baseball is the old steady. The girl you can call up after being out drinking all night with the boys and you can go over and get some lovin. Baseball is always there for us, it’s reliable. With that, let’s begin our baseball preview with the AL East.

The AL East is an interesting division because for the first time in a long time the Ny Yankees are not the favorites heading into the season, this will benefit the Yankees. The Red Sox have become the Yankees of the new millennium and for Boston fans, I do not think they will like this role. This division is brutal this season as Toronto and Tampa are much improved.

1. Ny Yankees- predicted record - 95-67

The Yankees are being vastly underrated this year. The line-up is really good, maybe not as good as year’s past with Posada aging and coming off a career year but how can you not like a line-up with A-Rod and Jeter in it? I do see more holes this year because of age and attrition, however, the one thing that has me thinking the Yankees will win this division in a dog-fight in the pitching. Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy are future aces, Mussina looks to be a bit revived after last year. Wang is a great regular season pitcher. Most importantly, the bullpen is lights out with Chamberlain going to Rivera. I know I will catch some heat for this one but I see the Yanks winning this division.

2. Boston Red Sox- predicted record  93-69

Another team whose line-up is hard not to like with Ortiz, Ramirez and Lowell among others. However, chinks are appearing already in the armor. Schilling is hurt and who knows when he’ll be back and at age 39, how effective he’ll be? Curt has lost a few feet on that fastball and his split isn’t what it once was. Beckett is hurting and while we know he’ll be back the question becomes is this an injury that lingers? Papplebon is a stud closing games and the kids like Lester and Buckholz are potentially great but I just see Boston taking a step back this year and going into the playoffs as the AL Wildcard.

3. Toronto Blue Jays- predicted record 89-73

The Blue Jays pitching is young, it was great last year. This team’s fate will be determined by the development of this staff. If this staff were to take it to another level this year, the Jays could win this division. Yes, you read that correctly. The line-up is very good with Alex Rios and Vernon Wells, even though he comes off a sub-par year by his standards. The bullpen, while not as strong as NY’s or Boston’s, is good. The key for Toronto is Halladay. If Doc is right, this guy can win 20 games and throw 250 innings for a team. If the preceding happens, then NY and Boston better keep an eye in their rear view mirrors because objects can appear closer.

4. Tampa Bay Rays- predicted record- 80-82

 In any other AL Division this team might be an 85 win team. Tampa is young and finally has some pitching. The trade that sent Delvin Young to Minnesota for Matt Garza was a classic, old-school baseball trade in which Tampa traded from strength (their surplus of talented young OF) and Minnesota did the same. Tampa won’t even notice that Young is gone as this team has Carl Crawford (I love his game) and BJ Upton along with a reborn Carlos Pena at 1B. The one-two punch of Scott Kazmir (Mets fans still remember that they traded a lefty with 95MPH gas for Carlos Zambrano??) and Matt Garza could be formidable. The downfall for Tampa will be it’s poor bullpen and lack of depth in the rotation and on the bench. However, keep an eye on this franchise as they appear headed in the right direction….FINALLY!

5. Baltimore Orioles- predicted record- 63-99

I have nothing to write about this team or franchise. Owner Peter Anglos is a joke, he has ruined a once proud franchise. They still sell a lot of tickets because their stadium is awesome and the inner harbor is a beautiful place to visit. The pitching is awful, the best thing about Baltimore this season will be Boog Powell’s barbecue in the outfield.

 Next up I will preview the AL Central on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.